Love the Phillies in this spot. Everyone was saying the Pirates owned PA, but then the Phillies stepped up and won 2 of three in Pittsburgh. They now come home where they are 7-3 in their last 10 and 39-14 in their last 53 home following a road trip of 7 + days with their ace on the mound. Cliff Lee has flat out dominated the Braves in recent years posting a 0.78 ERA over his last 6 starts with 4 of the 6 going at least 8 innings or more. He's also on 5 days rest tonight where he's posted a 2.19 ERA this year. He's made 5 starts on 5 days rest and the worst start was 7 innings pitched 2 ER. I'm expecting a big outing out of him tonight as the Phillies try to go on a run to get back to .500. The Braves have been awful when they don't hit a home run and Lee is allowing only .57 HR/9 with a 6.7% HR/FB ratio. Lee also has a 2.60 ERA at night and has held Atlanta hitters to 3HR in nearly 200AB.
Phillies will face Tim Hudson who is 0-8 in his last 8 road starts. Hudson has struggled on the road all year 5.71 ERA and at night 4.45 ERA. He's struggled against the Phillies of late too and has allowed an .809 OPS over 353 combined at bats. Hudson who is also on 5 days rest has not been very good in this spot posting 4.09 ERA, but has failed to go further than 7 innings. Braves have been a dominating team at home, but less than average at home 20-23 and are 8-24 in their last 32 road games as a dog +150 or worse. Expecting the Phillies to win big tonight.
